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| WORKING PAPERS Les documents produits dans le cadre de l’analyse économique et de la recherche entreprises par le Projet Ilo sont accessibles en ligne. Les documents sont disponibles soit en version anglaise, soit en version anglaise et française. Tous les documents comportent un résumé en anglais, les documents disponibles en français disposent aussi d’un résumé en anglais. En outre disponibles ici les cahiers de travail produits à partir de la recherche précédente au Madagascar par le Cornell Food and Nutrition Policy Program et maintenant étant conduite en tant qu’élément pour le programme strategies et analyses pour la croissance et l’accès (SAGA). Texte intégral des documents accessibles en ligne sous format PDF. Le format PDF peut être visualisé avec Adobe Acrobat Reader, téléchargeable à partir du site de ADOBE. Certains documents disponibles sur le site de l’IFPRI sont accessibles sous format PDF dans la liste ci-dessous. Plus d’articles et publications se rapportant à une analyse économique sur Madagascar disponibles sur le site de l’International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). |
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Household Water Supply Choice and Time Allocated to Water Collection:
Evidence from Madagascar BOONE, Christopher, Peter GLICK, and David E. SAHN CFNPP Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York December 2011 This paper uses household survey data from Madagascar to examine water supply choice and time spent in water collection. We find that the choice of water source is strongly influenced by a number of household characteristics, as well as distance to sources. There are also strong substitution effects across sources. For example, increasing the distance to a public tap by 1 km increases the probability of using a well by 43% in urban areas. With regards to time spent gathering water, we focus on the effects of gender, age, and distance to water. Women and girls spend the most time gathering water. The response to reducing distance to water sources differs in rural and urban areas, as well as by gender and age of household members. Investments to reduce to the distance to water sources will have larger impacts on adults than children, and on men than women. In Journal of Development Studies 47(2):1826-1850, December 2011 Family Background, School Characteristics and Children’s Cognitive Achievement in Madagascar GLICK, Peter, Jean Claude RANDRIANARISOA, and David E. SAHN CFNPP Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York September 2011 This paper uses linked household, school, and test score data from Madagascar to investigate the relation of household characteristics and school factors to the cognitive skills of children ages 8 to 10 and 14 to 16. In contrast to most achievement test studies in developing countries, the study uses representative rather than school-based samples of children and combines detailed information on school and family background. Schooling of mothers matters far more for learning than schooling of fathers, perhaps reflecting differences in parental time spent with children on schoolwork. Even these effects, however, are significantly attenuated when controlling for choice of residence or school. Skills are also affected by aspects of primary schools, including teacher experience and infrastructure. In Education Economics 19(4):363-396 Schooling, Marriage, and Childbearing in Madagascar GLICK, Peter J., CHRISTOPHER HANDY, and David E. SAHN CFNPP Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York September 2011 We jointly model the determinants of educational attainment, marriage age, and age of first birth among females in Madagascar, explicitly accounting for the endogeneities that arise from modeling these related outcomes simultaneously. An additional year of schooling results in a delay of marriage by 1.5 years. Marrying one year later delays childbearing by 0.6 years. Accounting for both a direct and a marriage-age-mediated effect of education, an additional year of schooling delays childbearing by 0.4 years. We also estimate the effects of family background on each outcome. Parental wealth has an especially large effect on marriage and childbearing ages. Household Shocks and Education Investment in Madagascar GLICK, Peter J., David E. SAHN, and Thomas F. WALKER CFNPP Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York March 2011 This paper measures the extent to which households in Madagascar adjust children’s school attendance in order to cope with exogenous shocks. We model the household’s decisions to enroll children in school, and remove them from school, and measure the impact on these decisions of shocks to household income, assets and labor supply. In order to explore these questions more fully, we use a unique dataset with ten years of recall data on school attendance and household shocks. We estimate hazard models of school entry and exit, and measure the effect of shocks on these decisions. The probability of dropping out of school is significantly increased when a child’s household experiences an illness, death or asset shock. The presence of a health and nutrition program in the local school is associated with earlier school entry and reduced probability of dropout among enrolled students. The Evolution of Groupwise Poverty in Madagascar, 1999-2005 STIFEL, David, Felix FORSTER, and Christopher B. BARRETT SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York August 2010 This paper explores whether there exist differences in groupwise poverty in Madagascar; that is, whether there is a pattern over time of consistently poorer performance among subpopulations readily identifiable by one or more identity markers. Three key messages come out of this analysis. First, there exists a core type of household that remained persistently poor over the 1999-2005 period. These households were largely not members of the dominant ethnic group, land poor, lived in remote areas, and were headed by uneducated individuals, most commonly women. Second, in addition to establishing the existence of persistent differences in poverty across groups, relative differences in returns to education, land and remoteness underscore the existence of differences within groups, as one characteristic affects the returns to another. Third, persistent differences in groupwise poverty is associated with multiple different identities, some of which are offsetting and some of which are reinforcing. For example, women’s higher education tends to offset the disadvantages associated with being a head of household, while remoteness compounds the disadvantages associated with living in female-headed households. This paper was prepared for a workshop hosted by the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity at the University of Oxford (U.K.). In Journal of African Economies 19(4):559-604, August, 2010 Spatial Integration at Multiple Scales: Rice Markets in Madagascar MOSER, Christine M., Christopher B. BARRETT, and Bart MINTEN SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York May 2009 The dramatic increase in the price of rice and other commodities over the past year has generated new interest in how these markets work and how they can be improved. This article uses an exceptionally rich data set to test the extent to which markets in Madagascar are integrated across space at different scales of analysis and to explain some of the factors that limit spatial arbitrage and price equalization within a single country. We use rice price data across four quarters of 2000-2001 along with data on transportation costs and infrastructure availability for nearly 1,400 communes in Madagascar to examine the extent of market integration at three different spatial scales—subregional, regional, and national—and to determine whether non-integration is due to high transfer costs or lack of competition. The results indicate that markets are fairly well integrated at the subregional level and that factors such as high crime rates, remoteness, and lack of information are among the factors limiting competition. In Agricultural Economics 40(3):281-294, May, 2009 Determinants of HIV Knowledge and Behavior of Women in Madagascar: An Analysis Using Matched Household and Community Data GLICK, Peter, Josée RANDRIAMAMONJY, et David E. SAHN SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York April 2009 We estimate the determinants of HIV/AIDS knowledge and related behavior (use of condoms) among women in Madagascar, a country where prevalence remains low but conditions are ripe for a rapid increase in infections. In both rural and urban areas, more educated and wealthier women are more likely to know about means of preventing infection, less likely to have misconceptions about transmission, and more likely to use condoms. Community factors such as availability of health centers and access to roads also are associated with greater HIV knowledge. However, most of the large rural-urban difference in mean knowledge is due not to location per se but to differences in schooling and wealth; rather than simply being geographically targeted, AIDS education efforts must be designed to target and be understood by uneducated and poor subpopulations. In African Development Review 21(1):147-179, April, 2009 The Demand for Hired Labor in Rural Madagascar RANDRIANARISOA, Jean Claude, Christopher B. BARRETT, and David C. STIFEL CFNPP Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York January 2009 This paper estimates structural labor demand equations separately for farm and non-farm enterprises in rural Madagascar. We adapt recent labor supply estimation methods that address the general unobservability of both wage rates – due to widespread self-employment – and employers’ non-wage costs of hiring workers in order to fill a significant void in the existing literature. Labor demand in rural Madagascar appears strongly increasing in enterprise owners’ educational attainment, in enterprises’ capital stock, and in community-level public goods. Furthermore, labor demand appears wage inelastic, especially in the non-farm sector where government labor market policies, such as minimum wage laws, are more commonly enforced. Agricultural Technology, Productivity, and Poverty in Madagascar MINTEN, Bart and Christopher B. BARRETT SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York May 2008 Minten, Bart and Christopher B. Barrett This paper uses a unique, spatially-explicit dataset to study the link between agricultural performance and rural poverty in Madagascar. We show that, controlling for geographical and physical characteristics, communes that have higher rates of adoption of improved agricultural technologies and, consequently, higher crop yields enjoy lower food prices, higher real wages for unskilled workers, and better welfare indicators. The empirical evidence strongly favors support for improved agricultural production as an important part of any strategy to reduce the high poverty and food insecurity rates currently prevalent in rural Madagascar. In World Development 36(5): 797-822 Productivity in Malagasy Rice Systems: Wealth-differentiated Constraints and Priorities MINTEN, Bart, Jean Claude RANDRIANARISOA and Christopher B. BARRETT SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York December 2007 This study explores the constraints on agricultural productivity and priorities in boosting productivity in rice, the main staple in Madagascar, using a range of different data sets and analytical methods, integrating qualitative assessments by farmers and quantitative evidence from panel data production function analysis and willingness-to-pay estimates for chemical fertilizer. Nationwide, farmers seek primarily labor productivity enhancing interventions, e.g., improved access to agricultural equipment, cattle, and irrigation. Shock mitigation measures, land productivity increasing technologies, and improved land tenure are reported to be much less important. Research and interventions aimed at reducing costs and price volatility within the fertilizer supply chain might help at least the more accessible regions to more readily adopt chemical fertilizer. Invited panel paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Gold Coast, Australia, August 12-18, 2006. In Agricultural Economics 37(s1): 237-248, December, 2007 Are Client Satisfaction Surveys Useful? Evidence from Matched Facility and Household Data in Madagascar GLICK, Peter SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York September 2007 This is an expanded version of a paper published in Social Science and Medicine. Client satisfaction surveys in developing countries are increasingly being promoted as a means of understanding health care quality and the demand for these services. However, concerns have been raised about the reliability of responses in such surveys: for example, ‘courtesy bias’ may lead clients, especially if interviewed upon exiting clinics, to provide misleadingly favorable responses. This study uses unique data from Madagascar to investigate these and other issues. Identical questions about satisfaction with local health care centers were asked in user exit surveys and in a population based household survey; the latter would be less contaminated by courtesy bias as well as changes in provider behavior in response to being observed. We find strong evidence that reported satisfaction is biased upward in exit surveys for subjective questions regarding (for example) treatment by staff and consultation quality, but is not biased for relatively objective questions about facility condition and supplies. The surveys do provide useful information on the determinants of consumer satisfaction with various dimensions of provider quality. Still, to obtain reliable estimates of consumer perceptions of health service quality, household based sampling appears to be far superior to the simpler exit survey method. Export Processing Zone Expansion in Madagascar: What are the Labor Market and Gender Impacts? GLICK, Peter and François ROUBAUD SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York December 2006 This paper analyzes part of the controversy over export processing zones—the labor market and gender impacts—using unique time-series labor force survey data from an African setting: urban Madagascar, in which the EPZ (or Zone Franche) grew very rapidly during the 1990s. Employment in the Zone Franche exhibits some basic patterns seen elsewhere in export processing industries of the developing world, such as the predominance of young, semi-skilled female workers. Taking advantage of microdata availability, we estimate earnings regressions to assess sector and gender wage premia. Zone Franche employment is found to represent a significant step up in pay for women who would otherwise be found in poorly remunerated informal sector work. Because it provides relatively high wage opportunities for those with relatively low levels of schooling, export processing development may also eventually have significant impacts on poverty. Further, by disproportionately drawing women from the low-wage sector informal sector (where the gender pay gap is very large) to the relatively well-paid export processing jobs (where pay is not only higher but also similar for men and women with similar qualifications), the EPZ has the potential to contribute to improved overall gender equity in earnings in the urban economy. Along many non-wage dimensions, jobs in the export processing zone are comparable to or even superior to other parts of the formal sector. However, the sector is also marked by very long working hours and high turnover, which may work to prevent it from being a source of long-term employment and economic advancement for women. Paper prepared for the conference “African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage” Cape Town, South Africa October 2004 In Journal of African Economies 15(4):722-756, 2006 Agricultural Policy Impact Analysis: A Seasonal Multi-Market Model for Madagascar STIFEL, David C. and Jean-Claude RANDRIANARISOA SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York December 2006 We describe the main features and results of a multi-market model for Madagascar that focuses on income generating activities in an agricultural sector that is characterized by seasonal variability. We find evidence that investments in rural infrastructure and commercial food storage have both direct and indirect benefits on poor households. In Journal of Policy Modeling 28(9):1023-1027, 2006 The Complex Dynamics of Smallholder Technology Adoption: The Case of SRI in Madagascar MOSER, Christine M. et Christopher B. BARRETT November 2006 This paper explores the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption, with particular reference to a high-yielding, low-external input rice production method in Madagascar. We present a simple model of technology adoption by farm households in an environment of incomplete financial and land markets. We then use a probit model and symmetrically censored least squares estimation of a dynamic Tobit model to analyze the decisions to adopt, expand and disadopt the method. We find that seasonal liquidity constraints discourage adoption by poorer farmers. Learning effects—both from extension agents and from other farmers—exert significant influence over adoption decisions. In Agricultural Economics 35(3):373-388, 2006 An Assessment of Changes in Infant and under-Five Mortality in Demographic and Health Survey Data for Madagascar GLICK, Peter, Stephen D. YOUNGER, and David E. SAHN SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York September 2006 Repeated rounds of nationally representative surveys are an important source of information on changes in the welfare of the population. In particular, policymakers and donors in many developing countries rely heavily on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to provide information on levels and trends in indicators of the health status of the population, including child survival. The reliability of observed trends, however, depends strongly on the comparability across survey rounds of the sampling strategy and of the format of questions and how interviews ask them. In Madagascar, the most recent (2003/4) DHS indicated very sharp declines in rates of infant and under-five mortality compared with the previous survey from 1997. However, retrospective under-one and under-five mortality data in 1997 and 2003/4 for the same calendar years also show large differences, suggesting that this trend may be spurious. We employ a range of descriptive and multivariate approaches to investigate the issue. Despite evidence of significant interviewer recording errors (with respect to date of birth and age at death) in 2003/4, the most likely source of problems is that the two samples differ: comparisons of time-invariant characteristics of households and of women suggests that the later DHS sampled a somewhat wealthier (hence lower mortality) population. Corrections to the data using hazard survival model estimates are discussed. These suggest a much more modest reduction in infant and under-five mortality than indicated by the raw data for the two surveys. Robust Multidimensional Spatial Poverty Comparisons in Ghana, Madagascar, and Uganda DUCLOS, Jean-Yves, David E. SAHN, and Stephen D. YOUNGER April 2006 We investigate spatial poverty comparisons in three African countries using multidimensional indicators of well-being. The work is analogous to the univariate stochastic dominance literature in that we seek poverty orderings that are robust to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines and indices. In addition, we wish to ensure that our comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures for multiple welfare variables. In contrast to earlier work, our methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as "union", "intersection," or "intermediate" approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well-being. Further, unlike much of the stochastic dominance literature, we compute the sampling distributions of our poverty estimators in order to perform statistical tests of the difference in poverty measures. We apply our methods to two measures of well-being, the log of household expenditures per capita and children’s height-for-age z-scores, using data from the 1988 Ghana Living Standards Survey, the 1993 Enquête Permanente auprès des Ménages in Madagascar, and the 1999 National Household Survey in Uganda. Bivariate poverty comparisons are at odds with univariate comparisons in several interesting ways. Most importantly, we cannot always conclude that poverty is lower in urban areas from one region compared to rural areas in another, even though univariate comparisons based on household expenditures per capita almost always lead to that conclusion. In World Bank Economic Review 20(1):91-113 The Demand for Primary Schooling in Madagascar: Price, Quality, and the Choice Between Public and Private Providers GLICK, Peter and David E. SAHN February 2006 We estimate a discrete choice model of primary schooling and simulate policy alternatives for rural Madagascar. Poor households are substantially more price-responsive than wealthy ones, implying that fee increases for public schools will have negative effects on equity in education. Among quality factors, multigrade teaching (several classes being taught simultaneously by one teacher) has a strongly negative impact on public school enrollments. Simulations indicate that providing teachers to reduce by half the number of multigrade classes in public schools would lead to modest improvements in overall enrollments, would be feasible in terms of costs, and would disproportionately benefit poor children. In contrast, consolidation of primary schools combined with quality improvement would be ineffective because of the negative effect of distance to school. Other simulations point to limits to a strategy of public support for private school expansion as a means of significantly increasing enrollment rates or education quality; such an expansion may also reduce overall education equity. In the Journal of Development Economics 79(1):118-145, 2006. Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar BARRETT, Christopher B., Paswel Phiri MARENYA, John MCPEAK, Bart MINTEN, Festus MURITHI, Willis OLUOCH-KOSURA, Frank PLACE, Jean Claude RANDRIANARISOA, Jhon RASAMBAINARIVO and Justine WANGILA SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York February 2006 This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household’s asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households' defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing. In Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 248-277, 2006 Rice Price Stabilization in Madagascar: Price and Welfare Implications of Variable Tariffs DOROSH, Paul and Bart MINTEN Novembre 2005 Given the large share of major staples in the budgets of the poor, governments in many developing countries intervene in food markets to limit variation in the prices of staple foods. This paper examines the recent experience of Madagascar in stabilizing prices through international trade and the implications of adjustments in tariff rates. Using a partial equilibrium model, we quantify the overall costs and benefits of a change in import duties for various household groups, and compare this intervention to a policy of targeted food transfers or security stocks. Supermarkets, International Trade and Farmers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Madagascar MINTEN, Bart, Lalaina RANDRIANARISON, and Johan F. M. SWINNEN Septembre 2005 Global retail companies (“supermarkets”) have an increasing influence on developing countries, through foreign investments and/or through the imposition of their private standards. The impact on developing countries and poverty is often assessed as negative. In this paper we show the opposite, based on an analysis of primary data collected to measure the impact of supermarkets on small contract farmers in Madagascar, one of the poorest countries in the world. Almost 10,000 farmers in the Highlands of Madagascar produce vegetables for supermarkets in Europe. In this global supply chain, small farmers’ micro-contracts are combined with extensive farm assistance and supervision programs to fulfill complex quality requirements and phyto-sanitary standards of supermarkets. Small farmers that participate in these contracts have higher welfare, more income stability and shorter lean periods. We also find significant effects on improved technology adoption, better resource management and spillovers on the productivity of the staple crop rice. The small but emerging modern retail sector in Madagascar does not (yet) deliver these benefits as they do not (yet) request the same high standards for their supplies. Getting the Inputs Right for Improved Agricultural Productivity in Madagascar, Which Inputs Matter and Are the Poor Different? RANDRIANARISOA, Jean Claude and Bart MINTEN SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York June 2005 We found that while farmers are willing to pay for improved irrigation infrastructure through water use associations, the amounts they are willing to contribute are significantly below the costs – and significantly below international standards – and this especially so for the poorest farmers. For chemical fertilizer, a more rational structuring of the fertilizer supply chain, with clear and consistent market signals, might help at least the more accessible regions to more readily adopt this input. Paper presented during the workshop “Agricultural and Poverty in Eastern Africa,” June, 2005, World Bank, Washington D.C. The Progression through School and Academic Performance in Madagascar Study: Preliminary Descriptive Results GLICK, Peter, Harivelo RAJEMISON, Arsène RAVELO, Yolande RAVELOARISON, Mamisoa RAZAKAMANANTSOA, and David E. SAHN SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York March 2005 This paper is a preliminary analysis of the Etude sur la Progression Scolaire et la Performance Academique en Madagascar (EPSPAM). The study is based on a nation-wide household survey with a special focus on schooling, complimented by academic and life skills tests and additional surveys of local schools and communities. The survey was designed to investigate the household, community, and school-level determinants of a range of education outcomes in Madagascar: primary and secondary enrollment, grade repetition and dropout during primary and lower secondary school cycles, transitions from primary to secondary school, and learning — both academic (math and French test scores) and non-academic ('life-skills'). It also seeks to understand the association of early academic performance, on the one hand, and subsequent school progression and scholastic attainment, on the other. The study also investigates the knowledge and perceptions of parents about the schools in their communities. In addition, the policy environment in education in Madagascar has been very dynamic in the last several years. Therefore the study also evaluates the implementation and impacts of several important recent policies in education, including the elimination of public primary school fees and the provision of books and supplies, as well as a series of administrative reforms such as the professionalization of the chefs CISCO and efforts to make school finances more transparent. Better Technology, Better Plots or Better Farmers? Identifying Changes In Productivity And Risk Among Malagasy Rice Farmers BARRETT, Christopher B., Christine M. MOSER, Oloro V. McHUGH, and Joeli BARISON American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(4):869-888 (November) We introduce a method for properly attributing observed productivity and risk changes among new production methods, farmers, and plots by controlling for farmer and plot heterogeneity. Results from Madagascar show that the new system of rice intensification (SRI) is indeed a superior technology. Although about half of the observed productivity gains appear due to farmer characteristics rather than SRI itself, the technology generates the estimated average output gains of more than 84%. The increased estimated yield risk associated with SRI would nonetheless make it unattractive to many farmers within the standard range of relative risk aversion. Crime, Transitory Poverty, and Isolation: Evidence from Madagascar FAFCHAMPS, Marcel and Bart MINTEN May 2004 This paper investigates the relationship between poverty and crime. Following a disputed presidential election, fuel supply to the highlands of Madagascar was severely curtailed in early 2002, resulting in a massive increase in poverty and transport costs. Using original survey data collected in June 2002 at the height of the crisis, we find that crop theft increases with transitory poverty. We also find that an increase in law enforcement personnel locally reduces cattle theft which, in Madagascar, is a form of organized crime. Theft thus appears to be used by some of the rural poor as a risk coping strategy. Increased transport costs led to a rise in cattle and crop theft, confirming earlier findings that, in Madagascar, geographical isolation is associated with certain forms of crime. Smallholder Identities and Social Networks: The Challenge of Improving Productivity and Welfare BARRETT, Christopher B. SAGA Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York April 2004 This paper proposes a general framework for resolving the puzzle of how to reconcile the mass of recent evidence on the salutary effects of social capital at the individual level with the casual, larger-scale observation that social embeddedness appears negatively correlated with productivity and material measures of welfare. It advances an analytical framework that not only explains individual productivity or technology adoption behavior as a function of the characteristics or behaviors of others, but that also explains the aggregate properties of social systems characterized by persistently low productivity. Examples from Kenya and Madagascar are used to illustrate the phenomena discussed. In The Social Economics of Poverty: Identities, Groups, Communities and Networks, Christopher B. Barrett, editor, London: Routledge, 2005. Public Service Provision, User Fees, and Political Turmoil FAFCHAMPS, Marcel and Bart MINTEN January 2004 Following an electoral dispute, the central highlands of the island of Madagascar were subjected to an economic blockade during the first half of 2002. After the blockade ended in June 2002, user fees for health services and school fees were progressively eliminated. This paper examines the provision of schooling and health services to rural areas of Madagascar before, during, and after the blockade. We find that public services were more resilient to the blockade than initially anticipated, but that health services were more affected than schools. The removal of user fees had a large significant effect on public services that is distinct from the end of the blockade and the increase in school book provision. Incidence des Taxes Indirectes à Madagascar : Estimations Mises à Jour en Utilisant le Tableau Entrée-Sortie RAJEMISON, Harivelo, Steven HAGGBLADE, et STEPHEN D. YOUNGER Août 2003 Le présent document utilise une nouvelle méthode basée à la fois sur les données d’une étude des ménages et sur un tableau Entrée-Sortie pour évaluer l’incidence fiscale à Madagascar, avec un accent particulier sur les contributions qui se rapportent aux intrants intermédiaires plutôt que sur les biens et services finaux. Nous utilisons la-dite méthode pour analyser l’impact des récentes réformes fiscales de Madagascar. Nous trouvons que les effets directs des changements de politique fiscale à Madagascar dans la fin des années 1990 n’ont pas été régressifs. Les changements en termes de taxes indirectes ont en gros été neutres, alors que la part croissante des taxes directes sur les salaires en ce qui concerne l’ensemble de la pression fiscale pour les ménages a rendu le système un peu plus progressif. Le principal changement fiscal a être régressif a été l’augmentation des taxes sur le kérosène qui est un produit ayant une très basse élasticité de revenu en termes de demande. Malgré cette conclusion, nous avons trouvé que la pression fiscale à Madagascar s’est déplacée vers les pauvres. Ceci n’a pas été dû aux changements de politique fiscale, mais plutôt à un changement dans le schéma de consommation des pauvres qui sont passés de la nourriture peu taxée et des articles du secteur informel vers des biens du secteur formel qui sont plus lourdement taxés. Ceci pourrait être une conséquence d’une amélioration du niveau de vie des pauvres, ce qui entraîne une part (relativement) plus grande de la pression fiscale. En termes de méthode, nous avons trouvé qu’en utilisant le tableau Entrée-Sortie pour faire une projection des taxes sur les intrants intermédiaires auprès des consommateurs finaux a fait une différence majeure dans notre analyse de l’incidence fiscale. Les taxes sur les produits pétroliers en particulier, particulièrement celles sur l’essence et le gazole, sont nettement moins progressives que ne le suggère le schéma de consommation finale. Néanmoins, les taxes sur l’essence et le gazole (et non sur le kérosène) demeurent parmi les taxes les plus progressives à Madagascar, même en tenant compte des effets indirects des prix des biens qui utilisent ces produits en tant qu’intrants intermédiaires. Les médias malgaches: floraison spontanée d’une ressource nationale ANDRIANTSOA, Pascal, Nancy ANDRIASENDRARIVONY, Vincent CARBONNEAU, Steven HAGGBLADE, Bart MINTEN, Mamy RAKOTOJAONA, Frederick RAKOTOVOAVY, et Harivelle Sarindra RAZAFINIMANANA Août 2003 Plus d’une centaine de stations de radio ont été lancées au cours de la dernière décennie à Madagascar. Privées pour leur quasi-totalité, celles nouvellement venues diffusent maintenant à côté de la Radio Nationale Malgache, station publique ayant eu auparavant le monopole des radiophoniques sur le territoire national. De la même façon, à côté de la télévision nationale sont venues s’installer une quinzaine de groupes privés visant une diffusion aux alentours des grands centres urbains à travers le territoire national. Depuis longtemps, Madagascar jouissait d’une profusion de médias écrits. Aujourd’hui, en plus des cinq quotidiens d’envergure nationale, il existe plus d’une centaine de publications hebdomadaires, mensuels, trimesteriels ou périodiques. Cette étude sur les médias malgaches vise à répondre aux questions principales suivantes: D’où vient cette profusion de médias? Est-ce que le moteur qu’est l’investissement privé saura soutenir et pérenniser un tel système? Quels applications et quel contenu transmet actuellement cet ensemble de médias malgaches? Quelles couches de la population sont servies? Quel rôle reste pour les pouvoirs publics? Moteurs Economiques pour la Réduction de la Pauvreté à Madagascar DOROSH, Paul, Steven HAGGBLADE, Christen LUNGREN, Tiaray RAZAFIMANANTENA et Zaza RANDRIAMIARANA Mai 2003 La présente étude vise à évaluer quatre candidats de moteurs éventuels qui puissent alimenter une croissance économique favorable aux ménages pauvres. Moteur 1. Hausse de la productivité agricole: a) riz; b) manioc. Moteur 2. Investissements routiers qui font baisser les marges commerciales. Moteur 3. Recrudescence des investissements privés dans la Zone Franche. Moteur 4. Hausse des investissements privés dans le tourisme. Les interactions de l’economie étant complexes — entre secteurs, régions, et institutions — nous utilisons un modèle d’équilibre général (MEGC) de Madagsacar qui capte toutes ces interactions. Les quatre moteurs sectoriels évalués ici ont des effets différents les uns des autres. Deux en particulier la recherche agricole et les investissements routiers — ciblent directement les ménages pauvres ruraux. De surcroît, tout ce qui favorise la productivité de production d’aliments de base profitera également aux consommateurs pauvres urbains. Les deux autres moteurs la Zone Franche et le tourisme favorisent plutôt les ménages urbains, pauvres et non pauvres. Vu son caractère dispersé, le tourisme a aussi des impacts non négligeables sur les ménages pauvres ruraux. Donc, chacun des moteurs á un rôle différent à jouer dans la lutte nationale pour la réduction de la pauvreté. Compensation and Cost of Conservation Payments for Biodiversity MINTEN, Bart Mai 2003 Slash-and-burn agriculture in poor tropical countries is one of the main causes of deforestation, leading to environmental costs and to potential externality effects on lowland agricultural productivity. Under innovative environmental policies, direct conservation payments to farmers are starting to be implemented to induce them to abandon slash-and-burn agriculture as well as the use of forest resources altogether. However, appropriate compensation levels are often difficult to get at. Using a stochastic payment card format in a case study in Madagascar, it is estimated that farmers would abandon slash-and-burn agriculture and forest use for median annual compensation payments at a lower bound of around 85$ and 177$ per household respectively. As expected, the econometric analysis shows that there exists a systematic relation between poverty and the required compensation for forgone land use. While poorer households depend relatively more on forest products, they accept a lower amount to abandon slash-and-burn agriculture and forest use. Better educated and older households require higher payments. Increasing Returns and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Trade FAFCHAMPS, Marcel, Eleni GABRE-MADHIN, and Bart MINTEN Avril 2003 Markets, Trade and Institutions Division (MTID) Discussion Paper No. 60, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Transactions Costs and Agricultural Productivity: Implications of Isolation for Rural Poverty in Madagascar STIFEL, David, Bart MINTEN, and Paul DOROSH February 2003 Markets and Structural Studies Division (MSSD) Discussion Paper No. 56, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Crime, Isolation, and Law Enforcement FAFCHAMPS, Marcel and Christine MOSER Journal of African Economies Volume 12, No. 4, 2003, Pages 625-671 This paper investigates the relationship between criminal activity and geographical isolation. Using data from Madagascar, we show that, after we control for population composition and risk factors, crime increases with distance from urban centers and, with few exceptions, decreases with population density. In Madagascar, crime and insecurity are associated with isolation, not urbanization. This relationship is not driven by placement of law enforcement personnel which is shown to track crime but fails to reduce feelings of insecurity in the population. Other risk factors have effects similar to those discussed in the literature on developed countries. We find a positive association between crime and the presence of law enforcement personnel, probably due to reporting bias. Law enforcement personnel helps solve crime but appears unable to prevent it. The Distribution of Social Services in Madagascar, 1993-99 GLICK, Peter and Mamisoa RAZAKAMANANTSOA December 2002 While a number of benefit incidence studies of public expenditures have been carried out for African countries, there are very few studies that look at how the incidence of such expenditures has been changing over time. We use three rounds of nation-wide household surveys to analyze the distribution of public expenditures on education and health services in Madagascar over the decade of the 90s, a period of little economic growth but significant changes in social sector organization and budgets. Education and health services for the most part are found to be distributed more equally than household expenditures: therefore they serve to redistribute welfare from the rich to the poor. By stricter standards of progressivity, however, public services do poorly. Few services other than primary schooling accrue disproportionately to the poor in absolute terms. When we further adjust for differences in the numbers of potential beneficiaries in different expenditure quintiles (e.g., school-age children in the case of education), none of the education or health benefits considered appear to target the poor while several target the non-poor. We also find significant disparities in the use of services between rural and urban areas, and by province. On the other hand, for both education and health services, no notable gender differences exist in coverage. With regard to changes over the decade, primary enrollments rose sharply and also become significantly more progressive; since the country experienced little or no growth in household incomes during the period, this apparently reflects supply rather than demand side factors. The improvement in equity in public schooling occurred in part because the enrollment growth was in effect regionally targeted: it occurred only in rural areas, which are poorer. Also see, "The Distribution of Education and Health Services in Madagascar over the 1990s: Increasing Progressivity in an Era of Low Growth," in Journal of African Economies (October, 2005). Seasonal Poverty in Madagascar: Magnitude and Solutions DOSTIE, Benoît, Steven HAGGBLADE, and Josée RANDRIAMAMONJY Food Policy Volume 27, Issues 5-6, October-December 2002, Pages 493-518 Seasonal reductions in food consumption pull about one million Malagasy below the poverty line during the lean season. There they join the nine million more who remain chronically undernourished throughout the year. Because the seasonality of food shortages coincides with the increased prevalence of diarrhea and other diseases during the rainy season, the resulting lean season exacts a heavy toll in the form of increased rates of malnutrition and child mortality. Combining the results of recent field studies with a seasonal multi-market model, this paper measures the probable impacts of three common interventions aimed at combatting seasonal food insecurity. We find the most promising interventions to be those that increase agricultural productivity of the secondary food crops such as cassava, other roots and tubers, and maize. Water Pricing, the New Water Law, and the Poor: An Estimation of Demand for Improved Water Services in Madagascar MINTEN, Bart, Rami RAZAFINDRALAMBO, Zaza RANDRIAMIARANA and Bruce LARSON February 2002 Generalized cost recovery is one of the basic principles of the new Water Law that has recently been adopted by the Malagasy government. However, the effect of this change in policy is still poorly understood. Based on contingent valuation surveys in an urban and a rural area in southern Madagascar, this study analyzes the effect of changes in prices for water services. The results suggest that a minimum size of 90 households in a village is necessary to reach full cost recovery for well construction. Given that this is significantly above the current size of villages in the survey area, full cost recovery seems therefore impossible and subsidies are necessary to increase access to improved water services. Cost recovery for maintenance is relatively easier to achieve. In urban areas, water use practices and willingness to pay for water services depend highly on household income. To better serve the poor, it is therefore suggested that rich households, who rely on private taps, cross-subsidize poor households as a significant number of households is unwilling or unable to pay for water from a public tap. Given that public taps make up a small part of the total consumption of the national water company JIRAMA, lower income from public taps are shown to have only a marginal effect on its total income. However, as experiences in other countries as well as in Madagascar have shown, a fee on public taps is necessary as water for free leads to spoilage, does not give any incentive for the distributor to expand networks, and might therefore be a bad policy for the poor overall. Agricultural Production, Agricultural Land and Rural Poverty in Madagascar RANDRIANARISOA, Jean Claude and Bart MINTEN September 2001 Rural areas dependent on agricultural income, are often among the poorest in developing countries. However, little distinction is generally made within the agricultural sector. This lack of distinction hinders targeting of agricultural investments towards poorer farmers. This paper illustrates, using a production function analysis with flexible marginal returns, how agricultural production activities and returns to agricultural production factors differ by poverty level in the case of Madagascar. The results show that access to primary education is relatively more beneficial for poorer agricultural households while additional secondary education has no effect on agricultural productivity. Returns to agricultural inputs are significantly higher for poorer agricultural households. Land inequality increases as land sales markets benefit the richer households and as the rich engage more in extensification while rental markets improve agricultural efficiency and may thus benefit poor and rich alike. Land titling has little effect on improved agricultural productivity. More formal land titling is therefore not sufficient to change the bad performance of agriculture of the last decades. Evolution de la pauvreté à Fianarantsoa: 1993-1999 RANDRIANARISON, Jean-Gabriel, Naina RANDRIANJANAKA, Jean RAZAFINDRAVONONA, et David STIFEL Juillet 2001 This paper takes advantage of nationally representative cross-sectional household data sets from 1993, 1997 and 1999, to examine changes in poverty in one province of Madagascar, Fianarantsoa. The authors find that poverty in this province rose from an already high 74 percent in 1993 to 81 percent in 1999. This pattern of change, which corresponds to the evolution of macroeconomic policy during this period, was restricted primarily to urban areas. Populations in rural areas witnessed persistent increases in poverty despite market reforms, as structural constraints affected their ability to escape poverty. A strong correlation between "remoteness" (as measured by various proxies) and high levels of poverty support this finding. Small scale agricultural households were hit particularly hard in the 1990s, and the data suggest that these are the very households that have been extending their land use by clearing and cultivating increasingly fragile lands. The use of models of household consumption to decompose changes in poverty into returns and endowment effects, substantiate the hypothesis that decreases in land productivity among these small-holders contributed to increases in poverty. These decompositions also reveal that increased access and returns to education between 1993 and 1999 contributed to declines in poverty. Changes in poverty in Madagascar: 1993-1999 PATERNOSTRO, Stefano, Jean RAZAFINDRAVONONA, and David STIFEL Juillet 2001 This paper takes advantage of nationally representative cross-sectional household data sets from 1993, 1997 and 1999, to examine changes in poverty in Madagascar. The authors find that poverty in this Indian Ocean country rose from an already high level of 70 percent in 1993, to 73.3 in 1997, before falling to 71.3 in 1999. This pattern of change, which corresponds to the evolution of macroeconomic policy during this period, was restricted primarily to urban areas. Populations in rural areas witnessed persistent increases in poverty despite market reforms, as structural constraints affected their ability to escape poverty. A strong correlation between "remoteness" (as measured by various proxies) and high levels of poverty support this finding. Small scale agricultural households were hit particularly hard in the 1990s, and the data suggest that these are the very households that have been extending their land use by clearing and cultivating increasingly fragile lands. The use of models of household consumption to decompose changes in poverty into returns and endowment effects, substantiate the hypothesis that decreases in land productivity among these small-holders contributed to increases in poverty. These decompositions also reveal that increased access and returns to education between 1993 and 1999 contributed to declines in poverty. Services d’éducation et de santé á Madagascar: l’utilisation et déterminants de la demande Glick, Peter, Jean Razafindravonona, et Iarivony Randretsa Juin 2000 This study provides descriptive and econometric analysis of education and health care services in Madagascar, using household survey data in combination with community-level data on services in rural areas. The service provider data indicate that the quality of rural education and health care services, particularly in the public sector, is very poor. We estimate the choice of provider for primary schooling and curative health care as well as the determinants of secondary school enrollments. We find that poorer households are generally substantially more sensitive than the well-off to changes in the costs of services. There is evidence that utilization of services is reduced both by distance to providers and poor provider quality. Simulations indicate that an expansion of more expensive private education and health care providers will not be able fill the gaps in public service provision and may reduce overall equity in access to schooling and health care. Pauvreté à Madagascar: défi public et stratégies des ménages DISSOU, Yazid, Paul DOROSH, Benoît DOSTIE, Peter GLICK, Steven HAGGBLADE, Harivelo RAJEMISON, Soahiantana RAKOTONDRAINIBE, Bodo RALANTOARILOLONA, Jeannine RAMARAKOTO, Patricia RAMAROSON, Iarivony RANDRETSA, Josée RANDRIAMAMONJY, Julia Rachel RAVELOSOA, Raymond RAZAFINDRABE, Jean RAZAFINDRAVONONA, David SAHN, Kenneth SIMLER, et Stephen YOUNGER Juin 2000 Over the past thirty years, sluggish economic growth in Madagascar has steadily eroded standards of living, pulling two-thirds of the population below the poverty line. Poor households combat this situation vigorously and creatively, implementing a variety of strategies for survival, mutual assistance and economic advancement. Yet many forces affecting their welfare — the state of rural infrastructure, availability of new technologies, overall economic growth rates, job creation and rates of inflation — lie outside their control. Consequently, the efforts of the poor acting alone are not sufficient to combat Madagascar’s pervasive poverty. Public intervention is required to complement and support the considerable efforts the poor are already making on their own behalf. After reviewing the historical evidence on the evolution of poverty in Madagascar, this paper reviews strategies adopted by both households and government for reversing these troubling trends. Incidence des impôts indirects à Madagascar: Estimations à partir du tableau Entrée-Sortie RAJEMISON, Harivelo et Stephen D. YOUNGER Janvier 2000 This study evaluates the incidence of Madagascar’s principal indirect taxes. It proposes an improved method for doing so, building on earlier work by Younger et al. That earlier work has evaluated tax incidence purely based on the distribution of final consumption by households. Using detailed consumption profiles from the EPM 1993/94, it is possible to impute the incidence of taxes paid by commodity and by income group. The innovation offered in this paper is to recognize that indirect taxes also raise producer input costs, which further upward pressure on producer prices. To capture this second source of tax impact on prices, this paper incorporates the 1995 Input-Output table for Madagascar in order to evaluate the price consequences of modified rates of taxation on intermediate production inputs. Also available in English La filière manioc: amortisseur oublié des vulnérables DOSTIE, Benoît, Josée RANDRIAMAMONJY, et Lala RABENASOLO Novembre 1999 Cassava provides 14% of all calories consumed in Madagascar, second only to rice. It is most important to poor households, particularly in the south where it accounts for over 25% of caloric intake. In spite of its importance in assuring food security to vulnerable households, regions and seasons, cassava markets and their functioning remain poorly understand, many times forgotten and frequently unappreciated in Madagascar. This paper reports the results of a series of rapid appraisal field missions, which, together with detailed quantitative consumption and production data, combine to provide a portrait of the scale, structure and functioning of Madagascar’s cassava market. Also available in English Estimation des élasticités de la demande à Madagascar à partir d’un modèle AIDS RAVELOSOA, Julia Rachel, Steven HAGGBLADE, et Harivelo RAJEMISON Octobre 1999 This study estimates elasticities of demand for 17 goods and for 6 different household groups in Madagascar. This level of disaggregation distinguishes clearly among the often highly variable behavior of households across geographic zones and across income strata. The analysis uses an AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) model for estimating consumption elasticities. Mécanismes amortisseurs qui jouent en faveur des ménages vulnérables HAGGBLADE, Steven, Alice RAVOSON, Andrianony RATSIMBAZAFY, Michel GALY, Monique RAVELOARIMANANA LUPO, Pietro LUPO, Jean Marie AUBERT, Lezlie MORNIÈRE, Fidèle RABEMANANJARA, Harivelo RAJEMISON, et Vincent RAKOTO Juin 1999 Against a backdrop of gradually deteriorating standard of living, over the past 30 years, Madagascar’s poor confront periodic shocks. Sometimes these shocks are favorable to the poor, as with improving coffee prices in 1986 and 1997 or good rainfall and rice harvest in 1993. More frequently, they are unfavorable—as with the droughts of 1985-86 and 1989-82, galloping inflation of the early 1980’s and mid-1990’s and most recently the locust invasion of 1998. In similar circumstances elsewhere, these shocks frequently unleash compensating social and institutional reactions to protect the poor. This paper summarizes the findings of three field studies aimed at identifying private sector safety nets available to different vulnerable groups in three different regions of Madagsacar. Property Rights in a Flea Market Economy FAFCHAMPS, Marcel and Bart MINTEN April 1999 Markets and Social Structure Division (MSSD) Discussion Paper No. 27, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Infrastructure, Market Access, and Agricultural Prices: Evidence from Madagascar MINTEN, Bart March 1999 Markets and Social Structure Division (MSSD) Discussion Paper No. 26, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Patterns of Employment and Earnings in Madagascar GLICK, Peter January 1999 This study combines descriptive and econometric analysis of various aspects of the labor market in Madagascar. Topics covered include: labor force participation and unemployment of men, women, and children; sectoral composition of the labor force; and the determinants of earnings in different sectors of the labor market. Agricultural Market Reforms and Their Impact on Rural Households in Madagascar PROJECT LEADERS: Ousmane BADIANE, Francesco GOLETTI, and Bart MINTEN September 1998 The objective of the IFPRI project was to study the adjustment of local marketing systems and the response of the farming sector several years after the liberalization of domestic markets in Madagascar. Research findings from this project, sponsored by USAID, are available in PDF format. Relationships and Traders in Madagascar FAFCHAMPS, Marcel and Bart MINTEN July 1998 Markets and Social Structure Division (MSSD) Discussion Paper No. 24, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Return to Social Capital Among Traders FAFCHAMPS, Marcel and Bart MINTEN July 1998 Markets and Social Structure Division (MSSD) Discussion Paper No. 23, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Structure et Facteurs Déterminants de la Pauvreté à Madagascar DOROSH, Paul, Steven HAGGBLADE, Harivelo RAJEMISON, Bodo RALANTOARILOLONA, et Kenneth SIMLER Avril 1998 Two-thirds of Madagascar’s population lives below the poverty line. Using detailed, nationally representative household survey data, this study examines regional and structural features of poverty there. It identifies key vulnerable groups as well as policy levers likely to influence their welfare. Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor in Madagascar: A CGE Analysis DOROSH, Paul March 1994 Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Madagascar’s economy, this paper analyzes several key policy changes in Madagascar during the 1980s, including stabilization measures, rice import policy and trade liberalization. Growth Linkages in Madagascar: Implications for Sectoral Investment Priorities DOROSH, Paul A. and Steven HAGGBLADE March 1994 This paper presents an analysis of the growth linkages of alternative industrial and agricultural development strategies, using a semi-input-output (SIO) model. Constraints on Rice Production in Madagascar: The Farmer’s Perspective BERNIER, René and Paul A. DOROSH February 1993 In the wake of rice market liberalization, there has been a slow response by rice farmers and production has just kept pace with population growth. Using a survey of rice farmers, the authors investigate the constraints on production increases. The report concludes that low productivity and economic profitability of fertilizer use are important barriers to augmented paddy production. Agricultural Growth Linkages in Madagascar DOROSH, Paul A., HAGGBLADE, Steven, BERNIER, René, RAHARIMANANA, Béby, RAMAROSON, Isadore, and RASOLOMANANA, Christian January 1992 This paper describes a semi-input-output model that is built around a 37 - account Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The model is used to examine the interrelationships between agriculture and the rest of the Malagasy economy. A Social Accounting Matrix for Madagascar: Methodology and Results DOROSH, Paul A., BERNIER, René E., RANDRIANARIVONY, Arman Roger, and RASOLOMANANA, Christian March 1991 The paper describes and discusses a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Madagascar. |
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